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Britain Needs Millions More Immigrants
// Britain may need millions more immigrants over the next 50 years to reduce the "unsustainable" pressure that the ageing population is putting on the economy, the Office for Budget Responsibility has said. //
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Bummer?
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Bummer?
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This is the inevitable result of running the pension system like a Ponzi scheme. You need a constant influx of suckers, sorry - investors, at the bottom, to keep paying off the ones at the top for as long as possible until the whole thing collapses.
As much as I hate to say it (not being retired) we probably need to raise the qualifying age for state pensions again.
As much as I hate to say it (not being retired) we probably need to raise the qualifying age for state pensions again.
Jno,
"I think the answer is to remove all benefits for the elderly, since they are the problem. They take up far too many NHS beds, require pension payments for decades, and then they have the cheek to demand money in winter because they're feeling the cold. Why don't they just put more clothes on"
May I suggest you ask your parents/grandparents to answer your thread.
"I think the answer is to remove all benefits for the elderly, since they are the problem. They take up far too many NHS beds, require pension payments for decades, and then they have the cheek to demand money in winter because they're feeling the cold. Why don't they just put more clothes on"
May I suggest you ask your parents/grandparents to answer your thread.
"The inconvenient truth for him is that without immigration our population would be shrinking!"
I'm not sure that it would be shrinking - more not growing quite so quickly. You may be right, I have not checked the figures. However, far from being an inconvenient truth if the population was shrinking it would be a positive benefit. Governments need to move away from economic models that require a constantly growing population. It is clearly and logically unsustainable. Such models do clearly not provide sufficient employment for ever growing numbers. This is already being borne out by the Eurozone nations, with some having up to 50% youth unemployment.
Yes, the State pension scheme is operated like a giant Ponzi scheme. That is the fault of successive governments who have not properly managed the funds they have compelled workers to contribute. A more pertinent factor is that many people receiving a “pension” are not pensioners at all but simply people in receipt of retirement age benefits for which they have not made sufficient contributions. If those payments were separated from genuine pensions it can be seen that the State pension is entirely sustainable provided its costs are confined to those who have made contributions and the levels of their pensions are related to the level of their contributions.
I'm not sure that it would be shrinking - more not growing quite so quickly. You may be right, I have not checked the figures. However, far from being an inconvenient truth if the population was shrinking it would be a positive benefit. Governments need to move away from economic models that require a constantly growing population. It is clearly and logically unsustainable. Such models do clearly not provide sufficient employment for ever growing numbers. This is already being borne out by the Eurozone nations, with some having up to 50% youth unemployment.
Yes, the State pension scheme is operated like a giant Ponzi scheme. That is the fault of successive governments who have not properly managed the funds they have compelled workers to contribute. A more pertinent factor is that many people receiving a “pension” are not pensioners at all but simply people in receipt of retirement age benefits for which they have not made sufficient contributions. If those payments were separated from genuine pensions it can be seen that the State pension is entirely sustainable provided its costs are confined to those who have made contributions and the levels of their pensions are related to the level of their contributions.
As many have said here already, this is a like a pyramid selling scheme.
You start with a handful, then you need more to keep it going, then more, and eventually you need millions in the scheme to keep it going before the pyramid collapses.
So if you keep bringing in more immigrants to look after the older immigrants, you then eventually need MORE immigrants to look after THOSE immigrants and so it goes on.
Eventually you would need the whole population of the world living in the UK to pay for the older population.
Then where do we go.
We have to stop this madness.
You start with a handful, then you need more to keep it going, then more, and eventually you need millions in the scheme to keep it going before the pyramid collapses.
So if you keep bringing in more immigrants to look after the older immigrants, you then eventually need MORE immigrants to look after THOSE immigrants and so it goes on.
Eventually you would need the whole population of the world living in the UK to pay for the older population.
Then where do we go.
We have to stop this madness.
Further to what I said earlier...
The most common reason (41% last year) for migrating to the UK was formal study (and let's not forget that international students bring about £4.3bn to the UK economy every year - more than enough to cover their costs). This most commonly does not involve staying until old age. Furthermore, most migrants intend to stay no longer than 3 or 4 years.
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In addition, I do remember reading in the Economist a while back that the average length of stay for an EU immigrant to the UK was something like 2 or 3 years, but I've not yet been able to relocate the reference...
Anyway, I'm not convinced that anything other that a significant % of modern migrants actually do stay into old age....
The most common reason (41% last year) for migrating to the UK was formal study (and let's not forget that international students bring about £4.3bn to the UK economy every year - more than enough to cover their costs). This most commonly does not involve staying until old age. Furthermore, most migrants intend to stay no longer than 3 or 4 years.
http://
In addition, I do remember reading in the Economist a while back that the average length of stay for an EU immigrant to the UK was something like 2 or 3 years, but I've not yet been able to relocate the reference...
Anyway, I'm not convinced that anything other that a significant % of modern migrants actually do stay into old age....
(incidentally, the highest guess that I have found published, by *anyone*, for the costs of health tourism is £200m. The lowest figure anyone can find - from MigrationWatch - for the value brought to the UK economy by international students is £4.3 billion.
health tourism: http://
International students:
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health tourism: http://
International students:
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And how much of that £4.3bn (if that is the correct figure) will find its way to the fund that provides for State pensions, Kromo? And if, as seems to be suggested, immigrants only stay a short time, why has the population risen dramatically over the past ten years (principally driven by immigration) and is forecast to increase just as dramatically over the next ten (principally driven by immigration)?
@VHG
We share the common misfortune of being the generation(s) living in the adjustment period, where the state tries to shift from a system of today's workers paying the bill for today's pensioners to one where their contributions are tracked through their career and then paid to them. (Spot the difference between that and a conventional contributary scheme?)
The issue of looking after the immigrants in their dotage could be handled by an adjustment mechanism of a different kind. Forgive me if this sounds stingey. (Admin load/workability is another matter entirely).
Year of entry: pay all medical costs in full (PR campaigns announcing this in countries of origin, as a courtesy)
For each completed year of employment, NHS pays 1/40th of any treatment costs, building up to free NHS treatment after 40th year of employment, for someone 18 years of age on entry. Obviously, a sliding scale for older ages of entry such that they accrue free treatment by retirement age.
Dependent children under age 18 on entry: free NHS treatment
Independent children 16-18 on entry: 1/40th per year worked, reaching the free treatment level early.
This should tackle the worst abuses of 'health tourism' whilst enabling those that remain here long term, working and staying mainly healthy to pay their own way including costs of their old age care.
Their state pension entitlements will accumulate in exactly the same way as everyone else will ultimately do when the catch-up adjustment period, I described, is complete.
If the economy recovers long-term and the debt problem is finally solved then, in the dim and distant future, a more generous treatment could be considered.
We share the common misfortune of being the generation(s) living in the adjustment period, where the state tries to shift from a system of today's workers paying the bill for today's pensioners to one where their contributions are tracked through their career and then paid to them. (Spot the difference between that and a conventional contributary scheme?)
The issue of looking after the immigrants in their dotage could be handled by an adjustment mechanism of a different kind. Forgive me if this sounds stingey. (Admin load/workability is another matter entirely).
Year of entry: pay all medical costs in full (PR campaigns announcing this in countries of origin, as a courtesy)
For each completed year of employment, NHS pays 1/40th of any treatment costs, building up to free NHS treatment after 40th year of employment, for someone 18 years of age on entry. Obviously, a sliding scale for older ages of entry such that they accrue free treatment by retirement age.
Dependent children under age 18 on entry: free NHS treatment
Independent children 16-18 on entry: 1/40th per year worked, reaching the free treatment level early.
This should tackle the worst abuses of 'health tourism' whilst enabling those that remain here long term, working and staying mainly healthy to pay their own way including costs of their old age care.
Their state pension entitlements will accumulate in exactly the same way as everyone else will ultimately do when the catch-up adjustment period, I described, is complete.
If the economy recovers long-term and the debt problem is finally solved then, in the dim and distant future, a more generous treatment could be considered.
may need it says, and as Krom has quite rightly pointed out how many will stay, the difference between immigration say in the 40's 50's, is that many came and settled, now that may well not be the case. so they contribute for a time, but also take out from the public purse. You have to think that if millions are needed, and quite frankly i doubt it, where will they live when we already have a housing crisis, not to mention the jobs, school places, and hospital care.
Over the next 5 years, 3.5million more people will reach pension age. The additional costs have to be met by the remaining workforce, but there aren't enough of them. Brits are not going to suddenly start producing large families again (they cannot afford to) and the current rate of immigration is too low.
that is also the problem, that for want of a better word the indigenous population are not having more children, as you pointed out, many simply can't afford it. Though the more recent arrivals from the sub continent, Africa are, some of those who may not be contributing as much, get more out of the public purse by child benefit, tax credits, housing benefit and whatever else is on offer. Time that things like child benefit, was capped at two children.
I also wonder that your idea of millions more people are needed, where do they live, and what jobs are on offer for millions more, more low paid ones, so we fill up our cities ever more, we are already straining at the bit now, think what our services will be like having to cope with those extra millions.
I also wonder that your idea of millions more people are needed, where do they live, and what jobs are on offer for millions more, more low paid ones, so we fill up our cities ever more, we are already straining at the bit now, think what our services will be like having to cope with those extra millions.
"And if, as seems to be suggested, immigrants only stay a short time, why has the population risen dramatically over the past ten years (principally driven by immigration) and is forecast to increase just as dramatically over the next ten (principally driven by immigration)?"
My guess would be that at the moment we don't need a terribly high birth rate to increase the population due to the fact our death rate is pretty low. Plus some immigrants are particularly prolific breeders, so it doesn't take that large a proportion of them to contribute to population growth.
Plus, to clarify, I meant to say that a large proportion of immigrants don't stay - not that none of them do.
"£4.3bn (if that is the correct figure)"
It's the very lowest estimate currently going, and it's from Migrationwatch. As it says in my link, other people have put it up as high as £12bn.
"how much will find its way to the fund that provides for State pensions, Kromo?"
Unknowable. That's not something I can find out.
My guess would be that at the moment we don't need a terribly high birth rate to increase the population due to the fact our death rate is pretty low. Plus some immigrants are particularly prolific breeders, so it doesn't take that large a proportion of them to contribute to population growth.
Plus, to clarify, I meant to say that a large proportion of immigrants don't stay - not that none of them do.
"£4.3bn (if that is the correct figure)"
It's the very lowest estimate currently going, and it's from Migrationwatch. As it says in my link, other people have put it up as high as £12bn.
"how much will find its way to the fund that provides for State pensions, Kromo?"
Unknowable. That's not something I can find out.
not sure how one say this is low, however these are the figures from last year
Deaths Registered in England and Wales, 2012
There were 499,331 deaths registered in England and Wales in 2012, compared with 484,367 in 2011 (a rise of 3.1%).
The infant mortality rate decreased in 2012 to 4.2 deaths per thousand live births compared with 4.4 in 2011.
There were 3,558 stillbirths in England and Wales in 2012, compared with 3,811 in 2011 (a fall of 6.6%).
Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in 2012 were 6,191 deaths per million population for males and 4,510 deaths per million population for females. The male rate is the lowest ever recorded in England and Wales.
In 2012, cancer was the most common cause of death (29% of all deaths registered) followed by circulatory diseases, such as heart disease and strokes (28% of all deaths registered).
Deaths Registered in England and Wales, 2012
There were 499,331 deaths registered in England and Wales in 2012, compared with 484,367 in 2011 (a rise of 3.1%).
The infant mortality rate decreased in 2012 to 4.2 deaths per thousand live births compared with 4.4 in 2011.
There were 3,558 stillbirths in England and Wales in 2012, compared with 3,811 in 2011 (a fall of 6.6%).
Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in 2012 were 6,191 deaths per million population for males and 4,510 deaths per million population for females. The male rate is the lowest ever recorded in England and Wales.
In 2012, cancer was the most common cause of death (29% of all deaths registered) followed by circulatory diseases, such as heart disease and strokes (28% of all deaths registered).
// well if they come, stay for 3/5 years, and many don't seem to be settling long term, how does that fill the coffers. //
They pay tax for 5 years, and then do not draw on it in their old age. As long as that is a rolling programme and short stay immigrants are replenished ongoing, then it can make a contribution.
They pay tax for 5 years, and then do not draw on it in their old age. As long as that is a rolling programme and short stay immigrants are replenished ongoing, then it can make a contribution.
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