Brexit - What If?

[Arrods]

The PM swallows his pride, sends the extension request to Brussels and it's refused (as one French minister has opined). What then?

[ichkeria]

Hmm there was a rumour the EU would unilaterally extend the deadline but I am not sure if that is possible.
I do love the doublethink of believing simultaneously that the EU is desperate for a deal and at the same time preparing effectively to expel us :-)

[ichkeria]

Put the or a deal to another referendum, not try to revoke Article 50.
It would NOT be a repeat of the last referendum and the outcome would be to Remain or do an informed and orderly Brexit.
If the former (or indeed Brexit cancelled) we could try to (again) renegotiate the terms of our membership.

[Gromit]

// who would you favour to lead [ a National Government] ? //

The United Opposition do not appear to have a
Leader. They are 4 Parties. A coalition would have to include the Tories or a nominated Tory. The current cabinet is discredited, so Hammond or Clarke could be invited to join. Not sure what you do with the minor parties. Their join task would be to find a deal that the HoC could pass before Oct 31 or Jan 31.

[Gromit]

I don’t think the EU will refuse an extension. If they are not asked, I think they will unitarily offer us more time. But Boris, if he is still in power, does not have to accept. But he will be politically dead in a ditch if he refuses.

[mushroom25]

would a government of national unity still be bound by FTPA? could Mr Corbyn be trusted to surrender power once the unity govt had done its job?

[Gromit]

Corbyn won’t have full power, there could be 4 or 5 joint leaders, and the Nation Government would be time limited, until a deal is passed by the HoC or 31st Jan.

[jim360]

mushroom: // would a government of national unity still be bound by FTPA? //

Yes, although they could also repeal it. Since a bunch of people across the spectrum have been calling for this anyway I don't think this would be a problem. Indeed, removing FTPA might speed up an election process.

[mushroom25]

//there could be 4 or 5 joint leaders//

OMG a committee. we'd surely be doomed. :-(

[dannyk13]

Gromit//I don’t think the EU will refuse an extension.//
Earlier this week Macron said he would block any extension unless some new suggestions for a plan came from us.

[Gromit]

Party Conferences.

Just like this is the wrong time for a General Election, it is also the wrong time for Party Conferences. Their time should be focussed on the immediate crisis. Labour and the Lib Dems should postpone their Conferences until after 31st Oct unless we do extend the deadline.
The Conservative Party Conference would probably go ahead but would an acrimonious bloodbath affair as the party is more split now than it has ever been.

[jim360]

Maybe Macron is just using the threat of No Deal to try and sharpen our minds and bring us back to the negotiating table in order to listen to his terms :/

[dannyk13]

Jim, I think that is highly unlikely.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1174596/Brexit-news-Pierre-Sellal-EU-France-Emmanuel-Macron-no-deal-extension-Boris-Johnson

[tamborine]

We saved France from the jackboot ww2 & we now beg them to save us? Bomb the frogs!

[ichkeria]

I guess the EU won’t now offer an extension because Johnson could refuse.
Or would he be legally obliged to ask anyway?
My head is starting to hurt.

The Queens Speech will need to be voted on and that will effectively be a vote of confidence. So the PM would probably have to resign after that anyway. It would at least save him from Gulliver’s ditch

[ichkeria]

Gromit
I believe MPs of the opposition parties were planning to try to cancel or work through the recess granted for the conferences. Which is one reason why prorogation has annoyed and alarmed so many.

[mushroom25]

//Put the or a deal to another referendum, //

so let's get this straight. Labour tell us they will go to Brussels and get a new deal (exactly how when Barnier won't renegotiate I know not but we'll ignore that for now), which they will then put to the electorate in a new referendum, where the options are new deal or remain, and the party would campaign for remain.

thus the party would be campaigning against their own deal.

do you think the EU would grant an extension for such a pointless exercise?

[davebro]

Whether or not there is any extension / unity government or whatever if any deal that is acceptable to the EU cannot get approval in Parliament & MPs in their wisdom will not countenance a no-deal then the only alternative is to scrap Brexit & remain in the EU. Just revoke A50 and avoid any further messing about with a "People's Vote" or whatever.

In that case the EU would NOT re-negotiate our membership OR take any meaningful steps to reform. And when it all goes ****-up, don't blame me!

[NellieMay]

I presume by his debating skills and actual knowledge that Gulliver is not yet out of short trousers!

[ichkeria]

Labour are very vague about what would be in a referendum.
Plainly they are no more going to be able to strike a completely new deal that Johnson is.
However they have a huge advantage in that if Labour were in power presumably there’d be a Commons majority for the sort of arrangement which would define the future political relationship with the EU: and there’d be no show stopping objection to the backstop.
Fundamentally what stopped Brexit before was the ERG and Labour’s professed belied there was a better deal they could get. But while they can’t renegotiate the withdrawal agreement it might be easier for them to get it amended as described above.

[Gromit]

Admittedly the Labour stance is ridiculous, but the question that Thornberry fluffed was, “If you win a General Election... “
We now know that there will not be a General Election to win until after 31st Oct.
whatever daft plan Labour had on Thursday, events have moved on.