Brexit - What If?

[Arrods]

The PM swallows his pride, sends the extension request to Brussels and it's refused (as one French minister has opined). What then?

[KARL]

Tamborine (10.36) neatly summarises/epitomises how all of this began and at the same time prescribed developments and how it will end, all at the UK's behest and nobody else's. Let's just wait and see the inevitable, not waste time on speculation/peering into the crystal ball.

[THELOONYCORBYN]

NellieMay
"I presume by his debating skills and actual knowledge that Gulliver is not yet out of short trousers!"

an immature juvenile, uses OMG and LOL a lot so im guessing a teenager if that....I thought this site was supposed to be for adults

[dannyk13]

Loonycorbyn //.I thought this site was supposed to be for adults//
No, it is for all- comers.

[ichkeria]

One rumour is even that Johnson is considering a second referendum as polls for a post Oct 31 election show the Brexit Party wiping out the Tory lead. That must have Cummings in meltdown as he’s always loathed Farage as fundamentally a stumbling block to Brexit

[dannyk13]

I don't think Cummings is doing Boris any favours, on the contrary he is a liability.

[mushroom25]

//One rumour is even that Johnson is considering a second referendum as polls for a post Oct 31 election show the Brexit Party wiping out the Tory lead. //

that would require an extension of at least 6 months, and realistically longer than that, in order to manage the aftermath of the poll. would that be the political metaphorical equivalent of being dead in a ditch?

[ichkeria]

It would keep him in power.
He can always claim that he was forced to go back in his word by an evil parliament.
If there was a referendum it should be held ASAP. Apart from anything else to minimise the embarrassing and divisive campaigning.
But the end result is either leaving the EU or “the people” voting to stay.
Anyway, it’s a huge IF

[ichkeria]

Yes I think Cummings ultimately done Johnson no favours.
He is fine manipulating public opinion - less successful trying to mess parliament about. They plainly thought Corbyn would go for an election. I must admit so did I.

[dannyk13]

From link at 09.14:-
//An exclusive Daily Mail poll found that half of voters want an early election and three quarters think their politicians are failing them
It shows the public still favour a No Deal withdrawal from the EU as opposed to having Jeremy Corbyn as their premier.//

[ichkeria]

None of that is surprising.
The “Corbyn or no deal” question is a false choice anyway. When there was all this talk of an interim government then maybe.

[mushroom25]

//If there was a referendum it should be held ASAP.//

a referendum would need legislation to arrange it; last time that took 7 months. constitutional experts reckon if much of the text was cut 'n pasted from the last one, the legislation could be in place in 12 weeks - assuming parliament can agree the wording of the question. campaigning would take a further 12 weeks. "ASAP" means, if the referendum is called as early as monday, a vote sometime in late February or early march.

[Khandro]

//The PM swallows his pride, sends the extension request to Brussels....//
Bojo has stated clearly that he will not do that; therefore not doing so would be illegal, therefore the opposition will be forced to launch a vote of no confidence, therefore Boris will get his election which with the held of Farage he will win.
If a vote of no confidence isn't called he will leave by default.

[ichkeria]

Except that the consequence of Johnson not obeying the law would be a legal challenge not a confidence vote.
Although it would be interesting to see how a PM who disobeys the law would go down in an election.
He don’t do that though.
He had to focus on leaving with a deal: after all that is what he really wants :-)

[Old_Geezer]

How long do legal challenges take ? Does it take us past Halloween without getting around to requesting anything from the EU ?

[youngmafbog]

"Although it would be interesting to see how a PM who disobeys the law would go down in an election. "

If he got us out he would be a hero to the majority Brexit voters. I think that would be reflected in the votes, especilly since the BP would back out.

[ichkeria]

My guess (sorry Karl) is that we will see a change of approach from Boris Johnson. This is a man who wants to be PM after all. His strategy was always high risk and probably doomed to fail.
I think the knives are sharpening for his adviser.

[Old_Geezer]

If they are, then not so much for the advisor pushing and getting so far, but for not covering all risks while doing so, and claiming it's too late to stop government delivering the people's demand.

Clearly when those MPs outside of government are allowed control, giving them the opportunity to introduce bills designed to straitjacket the 'first among equals' and their team, and then rush the result through the system, almost anything is possible.

[New Judge]

What I don't understand is why the surprise that we are where we are.

I pointed out a few months ago that a No Deal exit was unlikely in the extreme due to a Remainer Parliament. The current incumbents will do all they can to prevent us leaving at all and the camouflage of resisting "No Deal" ideally suits their purpose. I suggested that something similar to the Balls-Letwin obstruction would again be devised. Only the names have been changed to protect the guilty (plus an additional clause requiring monthly reports on progress - i.e. nothing).

I simply don't understand why Mr Johnson and his "Svengali" advisor seem so surprised or hijacked. It was also obvious that the FTPA would be used to the Remainers' full advantage and so we are where we are.

[Mozz71]

Boris' hands look to be tied a little tighter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49618242

[Khandro]

Wouldn't it be marvellous if the Queen (who must be a Brexiteer) after a lifetime of political neutrality & now in her 90's refused to sign the bill?