Bad News For Labour?

[ToraToraTora]

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Even during the current crises EC still predict a 54 seat majority in the next election with 4.5 years to go for the public to forget about all the current problems.
Labour still with a mountain to climb it seems.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53096238
When will they next get a sniff? 2034?

[jim360]

This was the picture at the end of May but it will have changed even since then, as polling data appears to show that the Tories have dropped another couple of points since then.

To be clear, I don't intend to twist this as "good news" for Labour, not least because it's bad politics to do nothing and rely on your opponents to collapse. Any successful Labour campaign will need to do more than "look at how badly things have gone". On the other hand I don't agree that in 4.5 years we'll necessarily have forgotten about this. A nightmare scenario is that Covid-19 keeps changing just enough to always be around, for example; and it will take plenty of time to escape the unprecedented economic damage of the last few months.

[steg]

Looking good for The SNP another 6 :) braw
Orc & Shetland >SNP :) doublae braw

[andy-hughes]

It's pointless hypothesising on something that is not going to happen for four years - obviously a huge amount can and will happen by then, and that's the time to assess the chances of any party.

It's similar to saying "My house is worth half a million …" - it's not, it's actually worth what someone is willing to pay for it at the time you offer it for sale.

The value of anything depends on circumstances at any one time - and that time is not here yet.

[mushroom25]

// Looking good for The SNP another 6 :) braw
Orc & Shetland >SNP :) doublae braw //

would you consider being a one party state to be a good thing Steg?

[ichkeria]

The ERM fiasco in 1992 was remembered at the polls in 1997. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 was still remembered in 2010.
The CoVid catastrophe will be remembered on 2024 although to what extent is impossible to say. Trying to predict an election result that far in the future tho strikes me as close to insane

[steg]

//would you consider being a one party state to be a good thing Steg?//

No, but the Uk is not a one party state

[steg]

Neither is Scotland(if that is what you are trying to make out)

[Old_Geezer]

Conversely 4.5 years to get their act together. That's a lifetime in politics.

[ToraToraTora]

ichi, me old china, your child like hope is so endearing!

[ichkeria]

At the Euro elections early last year the Tory party was being written off as dead. By December they had an 80 seat majority. And that was 7 months.
As I’ve often said before it’s usually the performance of the ruling party that largely determines how they’ll do next time. That didn’t really apply last year as the opposition to an atrocious government was even more atrocious.
So far Johnson has floundered and Starmer has looked as impressive as Corbyn looked bad.
But as I say, you cannot predict 4 and a half years into the future with any confidence