Looks Like The Anti British Will Soon Have To Find Some Other Stick To Beat Us With....

[ToraToraTora]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-in-europe-after-spikes-12053437
The countries of Europe are rapidly catching us up in deaths, we had only 6 die on Wednesday, heading to zero by next week methinks.

[Peter Pedant]

o god TTT has a go at stats
well why not on a slow day?

I am not sure if you have low things - few deaths - then anyone can 'catch up'. I know I should not read TTT and then actually think about what he says


The infections seems to be in the 24-35 age group. Certainly B;ham -the number of admissions to Hospital are low and no one has died ( more )

so the second wave looks different to the first - so the public health measures may be different

[ichkeria]

It’s not arithmetic it’s a prediction based on pure guesswork.
And given trends in Europe have followed to the UK so far then I am not sure thats a huge cause for happiness

[dannyk13]

TTT // see that's known as "arithmetic" they used to teach it in schools.//
Is there really any need for your sarcasm?

[ToraToraTora]

it's a predictio based on the figures so far, easily calculable if you did not have another agenda, the CFR can vary wildly mostly because of the way things are counted across nations but it can be anything from 0.2 - 7%, I based my estimate on a very conservative 1%
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#the-current-case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19

[jim360]

What is wrong with you?!

[ichkeria]

The only arithmetic I need here is the ability to count to ten ... slowly ;-)

[ToraToraTora]

stop trolling jim, if you have a contribution, make it.

[jim360]

Who's trolling here, if not the one who seems to think that the high death rate in Europe is something to effectively cheer?

[ToraToraTora]

....may be a derivation of the "so" rule there!

[THECORBYLOON]

There were 4,771 new cases and twelve deaths in France yesterday. 

[ToraToraTora]

none of those deaths were from those new cases, they take up to 6 weeks to die.

[THECORBYLOON]

You mentioned the number of deaths we had in the UK yesterday, I gave the same information for France.

[Apc2604]

I heard on the news a few days back that Catalonia and Madrid deaths had not been collected at all during some periods and care homes had been omitted. I can't find a a link, but this would seem to back it up.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-07-31/the-real-covid-19-death-toll-in-spain-at-least-44868.html

Spain has been hit so badly and without a lot of government help. I have close friends in Spain. In my opinion we have a lot to be grateful for.

I am sick and tired of all the nastiness from the media and the general public (and AB) about our government's handling of things. Mistakes have been made, but it was a completely new situation.

Likewise I am now sick and tired about all the focus on examination results. In the depth of the pandemic, measures had to be taken.

[dannyk13]

Apc, you are not alone.

[Apc2604]

Nice to know Danny :o).

[lankeela]

"Eurovirus Death Contest" - well done ick that really made me lol

[Peter Pedant]

// but it (CFR) can be anything from 0.2 - 7%,//
your cavalier attitude to 'rithmetic or stats qualifies you for - - membership of SAGE

CFR is case fatality ratio I suppose ( NOT rate ) - and oo er Mrs was as high as 15% - because of the preponderance of old people getting Covid and then dying.

so you are supporting NJ's case that statisticians can predict absolutely anything

why are the answers removed? we cant be getting frowszy over covid surely?

anyway the point I would like pollsters to take on board is that the rates and death ratios have changed - earlier on it was on clinical criteria and now it is on widespread testing
50% of the positives today are likely to have been symptomless carriers yesterday.

this is an example of the last e german economics minister saying
"I never believe statistics unless I have had a chance to manipulate them myself" - apparently an idea so common that no German denies he said it

[dannyk13]

As the saying goes - There, are lies, damn lies, and then statistics.