//So you assume NJ that because there are 140.000 beds, at one time or another they have ( all) been full, and the NHS has managed?//
No.
I've assumed that the normal bed occupancy (which is between 85% and 90% most of the time) is manageable. I'll tell you why I am sceptical about the claims made:
- In Q1 of the current year (Apr-Jun) the bed availability suddenly dropped by about 12,000. That figure usually varies by no more than +/- 1,000 or so in a quarter.
- In that same period, the bed occupancy dropped from its usual 85%-90% to 62%.
- These two factors combined reduced the number of "bums in beds" (BiBs) from 91k in Jan-Mar to 74k in Apr-Jun.
- All these numbers will undoubtedly have reduced even further since June. The figures are not available but if my local hospital is anything to go by the bed availability and the (BiBs) must both be considerably reduced.
I don't know where you got your nursing figures from. Here's something you may be interested in (published two months ago):
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/nhs-nurse-numbers-continue-rising-with-13840-more-than-last-year#:~:text=Over%20the%20last%20year%20(May,9%2C306%2C%20from%20111%2C950%20to%20121%2C256.
"The number of nurses in the NHS in England increased by 13,840 compared with last year, and the number of doctors has risen by 9,306."
Your comments on ICU staff levels is also worth a mention. It is important to note that not all Covid patients are in ICU. In fact less than 10% are under mechanical ventilation.
So here's my summary: The number of BiBs usually varies by +/- 2,000 at most in a quarter. Suddenly it drops by 17,000 and the NHS was, we were told, scarcely able to cope. So the question still stands: if the NHS was coping with 91k in patients between January and March and there were 17,000 fewer in the next quarter, why was the service under so much pressure? And if, as I suspect, the number of BiBs has reduced even further, what are the medics who coped with 91,000 patients last winter now doing now when there are almost certainly fewer than 70k patients. And most importantly, on April 12th there 19,849 people in hospital with Covid. The NHS coped. Last Friday there were 10,918 and we're told the NHS is on a knife-edge. So what's going on? Perhaps you can help me out.