The Threat Of Variants

[Canary42]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/larry-brilliant-warning-covid-19-vaccine-backup-085150972.html

The more we allow the virus to proliferate, giving it more and more breeding grounds, the more likely we are to facilitate the generation of a dangerous variant. This is a real threat.

The threat is from Covid Deniers - there's a few on this site (I won't name names as they know who they are, and they wear it as a badge), but how did we get to the point where aiding the enemy was acceptable.

[Peter Pedant]

//but how did we get to the point where aiding the enemy was acceptable.//

by accepting that everyones opinion was equally valid. But there have always been people who wont be told. Step forward Ethelred the Unready as an early example.

I havent heard of Larry Brilliant. Eradication of smallpoz was some time ago. Last imported case in the UK was 1975 I think - Hackney Hospital, child flew in from Pakistan. Parents presented spotty baby to junior doctors in A+E and asked 'is this smallpox?' I was there.

the BMJ webinar is worth a watch - and goes into variants.
points made - but listen to the 2 hr yourself
1. variants do occur - and the more cases, the more variation
2. an incredible number are being sequenced in otherwise idle machine in London.
3.some are synonymous - the DNA changes but the amino acid coded for doesnt.
4. some arent - the amino acid changes
5. and the big question is - - - which one is significant
6. identify ones which WILL be - - haha that is a good one considering the choice - and build that into the new vaccines

and so... the increased variation in vaxx refusers doesnt REALLY enter into this - it is the huge mass of the rest of the world who are susceptible and in whome the virus mutates

[Peter Pedant]

The tipping point is near - 60% vacco
and this SHOULD decrease R to a value that inevitable the disease peters out ( pun intended)

and everyone is waiting to see if in Britain this occurs

Kent variant has occurred in a variety of places - not by transport and so - - -the question arises - - is our behaviour response, directing in some way the variants of the virus?

that is if we vacca against X is there evolutionary pressure for the virus mutations to get around X ? - see para above
and they say that the spontaneous appearance of Kent in four places means the answer is yes

VERY technical answer - but it is Holy Saturday and I am bored
The webinar is even worse - 2 hrs
but as you can see you end up knowing a helluva lot about covid variation - also a review of Long Covid

god Srah Jarvis is giving them hell on tee vee as I type
Naga has just cut her off - clearly not saying what Nagger wants

[Peter Pedant]

oops thank god I am not named
DNA doesnt change - it aint a DNA virus ! I really really should have remembered that one
m RNA - gosh did anyone notice
mea culpa - - mea maxima cooolpa

[Deskdiary]

To my knowledge nobody on those site has denied the existence of Covid - Covid deniers are just plain nuts.

But surely Canary you don’t expect the country to remain in lockdown just because of a possible threat of a variant, because if you do, we’d always be in lockdown.

[Deskdiary]

This site, not those site.

Damn predictive text drives me bananas.

[Peter Pedant]

erm I have checked the original post
and the word lockdown does not appear

(nor in mine - which I have read a lot more times)

just saying

[bobbinwales]

Noone here including canary as ever said we should remain into downing forever so your point is, er , pointless deskdiary.
We'er just saying lets be cautious in view of variants and 3rd waves abroad plus under 40s hav'nt had vaccinne yet and will soon fill pubs etc

[bobbinwales]

In lockdown not in to downing.
Predictive text drives me bananas too

[Stickybottle]

The guy who invented predictive text died last night...
his funfair is next monkey

[Peter Pedant]

I thought the posts were rather clear ( for AB ) despite the literals

Sarah Jarvis back on - side effects reported to MRHA - wind and getting pregnant

getting pregnant if the vacc causes diarrhoea then the pill sortta drops out undigested and that allows you to get pregnant. Ill in bed but not that ill sortta. kinda reported here 1975
https://www.bmj.com/content/4/5994/467.6

not my fault if I remember a student saying: my mother has just got a letter in the BMJ.

[youngmafbog]

I guess this is just a thread to have a go at DD's previous thread.

[10ClarionSt]

Throughout this pandemic, everybodys' glass has been half empty, and looking at the OP, it still is.

[Deskdiary]

Yer, it wasn’t lost on me youngmafbog, but in view of who the OP poster is, I find it best to entertain the more ‘challenged’ members like Canary.

[ichkeria]

Exactly
Just a pointless bit of feuding between extremists

[New Judge]

//The more we allow the virus to proliferate, giving it more and more breeding grounds, the more likely we are to facilitate the generation of a dangerous variant. This is a real threat.//

So, without mentioning "lockdown" (which I agree you didn't) what steps do you suggest are taken to prevent the virus from proliferating? And when (i.e. what results do you need to see) do you suggest we can lift those restrictions?

[dave50]

Some are looking for any excuse to prolong the restrictions because they are frightened of real life and the minor risks involved.

[teacake44]

Then there's the real threat of millions dying of other medical problems that have been put on hold for 12 months, I say millions because there's now a waiting list in the millions. But Matt Hancock has insisted for 12 months now that the NHS is open as normal, how can that be with a waiting list at a all time high. With many doctors still hiding away in their surgery, or at home, only taking phone calls to give advice, without examination, the death rate will out strip covid deaths.

[Peter Pedant]

//The more we allow the virus to proliferate, ......facilitate the generation of a dangerous variant. This is a real threat.//

measures to limit proliferation are well known
masks, social distancing, and now vaccines

[KARL]

To what extent vaccines will help in the fight remains to be seen, not least because vaccinated people are being infected and they are thus presumably likely to infect others unless caught/isolated early enough. The widely held expectation is that vaccines will reduce the incidence of serious illness and also reduce infection sufficiently to at least help with the load on health services as restrictions are eased. It's a case of wait and see. Variants which get past vaccines altogether are potentially/probably the worst case scenario.

[Peter Pedant]

// To what extent vaccines will help in the fight remains to be seen, //
correct that to:
To a large extent vaccines will help in the fight and will be seen to have been crucial,

other corrections involve - their role and whether they reduce death rates remains to be defined
should be
they have cut cases and deaths in some areas up to 96%

other than that - quite a balanced summary