What Is Your Prediction?

[ichkeria]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/06/uk/boris-johnson-vote-of-confidence-uk-prime-minister-intl/index.html

[Kardashev]

I don't think any of this will affect the outcome of the next election. Labour are in no position to beat the tories regardless of who is at the helm.

[naomi24]

YMB, I think you object more strongly to 'green' policies than most, and as I said before, all parties are adopting a very similar theme, so in that respect it makes no difference. I tend to agree with you to an extent but isn't the be all and end all of the political world, and since objection really is futile, I really think we have to look beyond that.

[youngmafbog]

Its not just the Green Policies though is it.

As I have said before Johnson seems to be running 'New Tory' and I dont want Blair like policies, neither do I want unfettered immigration and I certainly dont want an economy run by the highest taxes ever.

And no, I wont roll over because you think objection is futile. Where would the world be if everyone did that?

[sandyRoe]

He'll win tonight but will be mortally wounded.
I wonder how long it will be before he's being measured up for the ermine robes?

[Ellipsis]

The vote is at 6PM on the sixth of the sixth ... LOL

[Zacs-Master]

‘He'll win tonight but will be mortally wounded’

If he wins tonight, another confidence vote can’t happen for 1 year. And a year in politics is a looooong time.

[Pete65]

Johnson will win the Confidence vote.

[FatticusInch]

Zacs-Master,
History is against your wishful thinking. More from Sky News.

Win or lose - confidence votes rarely end well for Tory PMs.
Two and half years ago he won an 80 seat majority, but Boris Johnson is now facing a vote that could see him toppled.
In her latest update, our political editor Beth Rigby says the number of MPs who are on the government payroll - cabinet ministers, junior ministers, parliamentary private secretaries - is between 160 and 170.
Assuming most of them back the prime minister, he should be able to meet the 180 votes he needs to win.
But even if he wins, how damaged is he? As Beth explains, when previous Tory PMs have survived confidence votes it is rarely the end of the matter.
Margaret Thatcher lasted a few days after losing a confidence vote - Theresa May six months. John Major went into an election and lost.

As Chris Bryant might say, he’s toast.

[Arksided]

I think it’ll go in his favour, but I’m not in his fan club yet I prefer him to stay.

I can’t imagine if the drip Theresa May was in charge over the past few years.

[naomi24]

YMB, //And no, I wont roll over because you think objection is futile//

I'm neither asking nor expecting you to 'roll over'. Simply attempting to bring other factors - of which there are many - into the frame.

[drmorgans]

Bozo will win the vote (I assume) but with a surprisingly low majority. He'll thank his supporters, say he got Brexit done, delivered the covid vaccine, supported Ukraine. Will he still be around in 2023? Doubt it. He'll be off writing a lucrative biog of old Billy Shakes and a his own memoire.

[mushroom25]

// The vote is at 6PM //

the ballot starts at 6pm, and concludes at 8pm, with counting after that. we may not know the result until 10pm, or even later.

[youngmafbog]

I have bought other factors into it, couple above. And this is not new from me, yes I disagree entirely with his unworkable green polices that will cause misery for many just so he can virtue signal, but there are many other policies I dont regard as Conservative and have stated on these pages (and not cake gate or whatever).

It's kind of irrelevant what I think anyway, Johnson has lost Middle England and that is how you win Government. He is now a busted flush all of his own volition.

[naomi24]

//I suspect that many/most of them will be thinking ahead to the next election, with the real question in their minds actually being "Do we stand much hope of winning if Boris is still PM?".//

They forget that without Boris they wouldn't be sitting where they are. Life-long Labour voters, despite being terrified by the prospect of Corbyn in the chair, wouldn't have voted for May - and they didn't vote for the Conservatives - they voted for Boris because he was the only one who had the guts to carry out the will of the people and get Brexit done - and Brexit is what this is all about. At the next election they shouldn’t be surprised if they're looking for jobs - and it will serve them right if they are. I utterly detest disloyalty and I'll shed no tears for the self-serving - or for the inevitable reduced majority. The damage the fools are doing to the government will be what it is.

[ichkeria]

The thing is though, you cannot base a vote like this merely out of loyalty. If that is the only reason to vote for the PM, and there are reasons not to, then the other reasons must come first.
Electios should not be votes of thanks.

[douglas9401]

Labour voters may have thought that, faced with the big job, Mr Johnson would get it together putting aside his image as a jack-the-lad booze hound with a carefree attitude to work, the truth and public perception.

He's shown none of that to be true and so may be gone sooner rather than later.

Party central drones posting tripe on the internet will have to get blindly behind somebody else in jig time.

[sandra4444]

12.23 Yep your dead right. I bet the bribes for support are flowing out over the pone of number 10 today like never before.

[TantP]

Serious question: What happens if he does lose the vote tonight? Is he kicked out, is he expected to resign, or can he remain as PM, bumbling along humming under his breath 'things can only get better'?

[naomi24]

Ich, I don't believe it should be solely down to loyalty at all - and I didn't say that. I'd defy the most loyal of Conservatives to remain loyal to the traitors that were May and Cameron - but I think Boris has done a pretty good job in the most difficult circumstances - and that's why his party should remain loyal to him.

[FatticusInch]

Ellipsis
//The vote is at 6PM on the sixth of the sixth ... LOL//

Yes, the Longest Day too, how apt.