What Is Your Prediction?

[ichkeria]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/06/uk/boris-johnson-vote-of-confidence-uk-prime-minister-intl/index.html

[naomi24]

Ich, you have your opinions and I have mine - and in my opinion this isn’t as a result of the reasons given. The media - and more - have very conveniently - and utterly dishonestly - made a meal of the absolute nonsense known as ‘partygate’ in order to wreak revenge for his determination to fulfil the result of the Brexit referendum. Very useful partygate!

[Ellipsis]

> //The vote is at 6PM on the sixth of the sixth ... LOL//
> Yes, the Longest Day too, how apt.

I presume you haven't seen The Omen. 666 is the number of the beast, inscribed on the skin of the antichrist ...

The longest day is June 21.

[naomi24]

That is thought to have been wrongly translated. The oldest surviving scrap of the New Testament gives the number as 616. Back to the drawing board.

[Peter Pedant]

140 sheep will vote against

[Ellipsis]

LOL, Naomi, it was a bit of fun, which is why I referred to The Omen rather than Revelation 13:18, but I think it's highly likely that any copy of the Bible that you own says it's 666. Certainly, that's what my copy says.

[naomi24]

Indeed.

[Cloverjo]

Of course he’ll win. I’m no Boris fan but I can’t think of anyone else who could take over, really.
Liz Truss? No thanks. Mini Thatcher.
Rishi, maybe.

[FatticusInch]

Avatar Image Ellipsis
> //The vote is at 6PM on the sixth of the sixth ... LOL//
> Yes, the Longest Day too, how apt.

//I presume you haven't seen The Omen. 666 is the number of the beast, inscribed on the skin of the antichrist ...

The longest day is June 21.//

Crossed wires, I was alluding to D Day 1944, aka The Longest Day, as immortalised in film.

[FatticusInch]

Forgot to add to my post that D Day was 6th June.

[Ellipsis]

It was, but Boris will probably see that as a good sign ...

[MissTerious]

If he loses then there will be many regrets later. Party gate to me is a total joke that makes our Country and system laughable. I am still wondering how attending a work event with people you work with in the work place', and people not being able to visit their dying loved ones equate.

[FatticusInch]

MissTerious,
Having drinks with colleagues wasn’t allowed as a result of legislation brought in by the government, who failed to follow their own rules.
Doing so on multiple occasions, engaging in fisticuffs, puking up and treating the Downing St ancillary staff like vermin really isn’t very nice, especially whilst the public were abiding by the laws as best they could.
Lying about it is deemed even worse, especially by the great and the good of one’s own political party.
Hope that clears up any ambiguity for you.

[ichkeria]

The “Partygate” affair isn’t really the issue though is it. Not on its own

[Ellipsis]

Prediction: Boris will win this evening, by a fair bit.

The Tories will then lose the two forthcoming by-elections (one of which carries a huge majority). Boris will stay on.

The forthcoming Commons inquiry will then find that Boris misled Parliament. What then? I don't know. Chaos, probably.

The idea that there is nobody else that could lead the Tory party as well as Boris is not one I agree with, but - if true - it does not say a lot for the Tory party ...

[FatticusInch]

Latest predictions are a two way contest thus far between Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat when the assassination is complete.

[Old_Geezer]

I predict he's more likely to win the vote than have over 50% of Tiry MPs vote against him. It's clear there is no obvious successor for the post so the mess a PM removal would cause is a risk too far. However he does need to ensure government then gets on with all the things it claims it will, or the next GE will inevitably be a disaster both for his party and for the nation as a whole.

[Old_Geezer]

TORY !

[Gromit]

My prediction is between Boris 240-250 votes.
Boris will survive for now.

There are currently 359 Conservative MPs which is a lot compared with previous votes. The high number is probably distorting the scale of the malcontents prepared to vote against him.

In 1990 Thatcher won the first round of the leadership contest with 204 votes. But went anyway.
In 2018 May survived a VONC with 200 votes. But only survived a few months longer.

So Johnson doesn’t need to just win, but needs to win convincingly. If over 100 Conservative MPs vote against him, then there will be further trouble ahead for him. Another VONC maybe after the Privileges Committee report might be on the cards, and a leadership challenge in the Autumn if he is still PM then. (May called it a day when she was facing a second VONC).

Boris needs 300+ votes to be safe, but will be well short of that figure.

[THECORBYLOON]

"Another VONC maybe after the Privileges Committee report might be on the cards"

If Boris were to win to-night, under the current rules, he would be safe for another twelve month.

There is talk of the rules being changed so that twelve-month period might be reduced.

[sandra4444]

@ 13.41 naomi, There's only one person on here at the moment making a massive fool of themselves, and its got to be you, and you alone in constant denial of any wrong doing by Boris.

But to be honest I think you do for attention more than anything. In any case FatticusInch is making a grand job of pulling your posts apart and making a complete fool of you. Its great to see!! :)