What Is Your Prediction?

[ichkeria]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/06/uk/boris-johnson-vote-of-confidence-uk-prime-minister-intl/index.html

[Canary42]

My prediction: He will win.

[FatticusInch]

naomi24
//Ich, I don't believe it should be solely down to loyalty at all - and I didn't say that. I'd defy the most loyal of Conservatives to remain loyal to the traitors that were May and Cameron - but I think Boris has done a pretty good job in the most difficult circumstances - and that's why his party should remain loyal to him.//

So it shouldn’t be down to loyalty but they should remain loyal? Clear as mud! Lol
Also, by your reckoning it sounds like the Tory party is basically wall to wall traitors, can’t trust a single one!
Are you always this paranoid?

[THECORBYLOON]

TANTP, if he loses the vote, he will have to resign.

He can remain as PM pending the outcome of the leadership election or resign sooner but advise the Queen who should be the interim PM pending the outcome of the leadership election.

[drmorgans]

And not be allowed to stand in the election himself?

[dannyk13]

Apparently the Daily Mirror have been keeping a count of how many MP's support Boris.At the moment that figure is 75.He will need a lot more that that to survive.

[THECORBYLOON]

Correct

[tomus42]

He'll win. It's just by how many that will be of interest.

[ichkeria]

"I think Boris has done a pretty good job in the most difficult circumstances - and that's why his party should remain loyal to him. "

That, though, is purely voting out of loyalty, which is fine as far as it goes, but what I'm saying is: if you have other reasons to do with the here and now, and the future, then loyalty on it's own is not sufficient.
If you don't then fair enough. If all you are thinking of is your own seat,then I agree that that is selfish, although I suspect that for most MPs it is more than just that. And in any case, if enough seats are thought to be vulnerable then that is bad for the partry as a whole.

[youngmafbog]

It's a secret ballot though Danny.

So who knows what a person actually votes for - even if they say in public they will do one thing. All politicians are scant with the truth.

[youngmafbog]

MP's will have been out and about over the long weekend in their constituencies. I would have thought that, whichever way the land lies, would influence them.

[naomi24]

FatticusInch, I said // I don't believe it should be solely down to loyalty // ...

...and you said..//So it shouldn’t be down to loyalty but they should remain loyal//

I don't doubt you can spot your deliberate mistake. If you can't win by fair means you have no objection to giving foul a bash! :o)))

[Paul22118]

He will win the battle, but lose the war. MP's as a collective are selfish and only interested in winning, which means a job secure for at least five years. He has two options. 1. Within six months go but having cemented his choice of replacement solidly. 2. Win the vote and call a snap election - put the choice to us.

[naomi24]

Ich, //That, though, is purely voting out of loyalty//

No, it's recognising his past achievements and, in light of that, supporting him for the future. I felt the same when they stabbed Mrs Thatcher in the back - and I detested her!

[sandra4444]

My prediction? More street parties when Boris is gone.

[sandra4444]

Past achievements? Having a party the night before the Duke Edinburgh funeral.

[naomi24]

//Boris Johnson was not at Downing Street that evening//

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/13/two-downing-street-parties-held-evening-before-prince-philips-funeral-reports

Try again, Sandra... or better still don't. That way you won't make a fool of yourself again.

[Peter Pedant]

what is wrong with
So it shouldn’t be down to loyalty but they should remain loyal?

X and not-X in the same breath - all it means is that one of the usual suspects is blaarting on AB ! with er their usual clarity

[webbo3]

https://ibb.co/XXvnM1b

[naomi24]

PP, you need to work on your reading skills too.

[ichkeria]

"recognising his past achievements and, in light of that, supporting him for the future

Which is pointless if you don't think he is good for the future.
That is very much the position of whoever it was I heard on the radio this morning.
Same with Thatcher: lots of MPs who supported her at the time realised that it was time to move on. At least in her case she'd won three elections: BJ looks like he's lost the parliamentary party after only 30 months with an 80-seat majority. That can't be just everyone else's fault but his,