Quizzes & Puzzles9 mins ago
Four By-Elections Looming Ahead.
The odds are that the Tories will lose every single one of them.
With the Boris Pantomime , the disastrous outcome of Brexit,the worst fall in living standards in a generation. High food prices, crippling energy bills, high fuel prices. Mortgage repayments going sky high, and the Economy stagnating .Why would you ever want to vote Tory again in your lifetime.
With the Boris Pantomime , the disastrous outcome of Brexit,the worst fall in living standards in a generation. High food prices, crippling energy bills, high fuel prices. Mortgage repayments going sky high, and the Economy stagnating .Why would you ever want to vote Tory again in your lifetime.
Answers
"That's spin. The electorate hasn't chucked him out." First of all, you really need to work on your policy of non-
09:50 Mon 19th Jun 2023
Cynics :P
Zacs -- yeah, agreed, which is kind of my point and really ought to torpedo this "forced out" narrative, but won't of course. Johnson is out because he is no longer popular -- for reasons of his own making, and for reasons he could easily have fixed -- not because he is being targeted out of some misplaced and pointless sense of "revenge".
Zacs -- yeah, agreed, which is kind of my point and really ought to torpedo this "forced out" narrative, but won't of course. Johnson is out because he is no longer popular -- for reasons of his own making, and for reasons he could easily have fixed -- not because he is being targeted out of some misplaced and pointless sense of "revenge".
"That's spin. The electorate hasn't chucked him out."
First of all, you really need to work on your policy of non-engagement.
Secondly, it isn't spin: there is nothing Parliament can do that forces an MP out. Suspension is temporary. If the electorate were on Johnson's side then he would have had the perfect opportunity to prove this by, first, testing the scale of any recall petition, and secondly by standing in the subsequent by-election. Why, then, is he not taking this path? If he were still popular, then the campaign would be easy. This is the question to which there is only one answer -- well, arguably two, but they are related:
1. Johnson expects that he would lose, and doesn't want to associate himself with personal defeat in a vote, and/or;
2. Johnson doesn't want to stand in the coming by-election regardless of whether or not he'd win, because he wants to put as much distance between himself and the coming (likely) Tory defeat in the General Election.
But both of these amount to caring more about "brand Johnson" than about genuinely serving as an MP.
First of all, you really need to work on your policy of non-engagement.
Secondly, it isn't spin: there is nothing Parliament can do that forces an MP out. Suspension is temporary. If the electorate were on Johnson's side then he would have had the perfect opportunity to prove this by, first, testing the scale of any recall petition, and secondly by standing in the subsequent by-election. Why, then, is he not taking this path? If he were still popular, then the campaign would be easy. This is the question to which there is only one answer -- well, arguably two, but they are related:
1. Johnson expects that he would lose, and doesn't want to associate himself with personal defeat in a vote, and/or;
2. Johnson doesn't want to stand in the coming by-election regardless of whether or not he'd win, because he wants to put as much distance between himself and the coming (likely) Tory defeat in the General Election.
But both of these amount to caring more about "brand Johnson" than about genuinely serving as an MP.
// He isn't out because he's unpopular with the electorate - which is what you're saying. That hasn't been put to the test. Therefore you're making it up. //
I can point you to Johnson's favourability ratings if you'd like. I'm not making anything up -- I know you aren't usually a fan of polls, but even still their results aren't made up, by me or anybody else.
Also, this still refuses to answer the question about why Johnson is not standing in the by-election.
I can point you to Johnson's favourability ratings if you'd like. I'm not making anything up -- I know you aren't usually a fan of polls, but even still their results aren't made up, by me or anybody else.
Also, this still refuses to answer the question about why Johnson is not standing in the by-election.
eg https:/
// They're so very often ... wrong.... but you know that from experience. //
They are easily misinterpreted, and often taken out of context, but "wrong" is a stretch. This is the reason I linked to two sources citing multiple polls, so that you can observe trend lines, and then check that they line up reasonably with political events. For example, you can see an improvement in Johnson's favourability ratings around the end of February 2022, which lines up pretty perfectly, and entirely understandably, with his response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which deserved and still deserves praise. Also, the rating is particularly high at the start of 2020, which is to be expected as it coincides with (a) winning an election, and (b) doing what he'd said he would afterwards, ie ending the Brexit deadlock.
Public opinion shifts over time, and it can be difficult to track perfectly, so I don't particularly put much weight in the *exact* figures, but the general trend is clear and unarguable, namely that Johnson was far less popular at the end of his time as PM than he was at the beginning. Ultimately, that's why he was forced out as PM: if he'd remained popular, then obviously MPs would have backed the winner. As for being "forced out" as MP: again, that's not something that can happen without the consent of the people. Johnson is no longer an MP because he chose not to be. Because he chose not to risk standing in an election. And because, ultimately, being "merely" an MP will never satisfy him.
They are easily misinterpreted, and often taken out of context, but "wrong" is a stretch. This is the reason I linked to two sources citing multiple polls, so that you can observe trend lines, and then check that they line up reasonably with political events. For example, you can see an improvement in Johnson's favourability ratings around the end of February 2022, which lines up pretty perfectly, and entirely understandably, with his response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which deserved and still deserves praise. Also, the rating is particularly high at the start of 2020, which is to be expected as it coincides with (a) winning an election, and (b) doing what he'd said he would afterwards, ie ending the Brexit deadlock.
Public opinion shifts over time, and it can be difficult to track perfectly, so I don't particularly put much weight in the *exact* figures, but the general trend is clear and unarguable, namely that Johnson was far less popular at the end of his time as PM than he was at the beginning. Ultimately, that's why he was forced out as PM: if he'd remained popular, then obviously MPs would have backed the winner. As for being "forced out" as MP: again, that's not something that can happen without the consent of the people. Johnson is no longer an MP because he chose not to be. Because he chose not to risk standing in an election. And because, ultimately, being "merely" an MP will never satisfy him.
You could, I think, plausibly claim that the Tories panicked in July 2022 -- I mentioned the Pincher Affair, which was the final straw, but in isolation and compared to other Johnson scandals it felt to me much more "internal" to Westminster, and therefore an odd choice to tear the Party apart -- and it will obviously be impossible to disentangle the effect of two changes of leader in almost as many months from, say, the effects of any one of those leader's personal contribution, when it comes to judging future Tory performance. And I think Johnson is bound to at least try to argue that he isn't culpable for any GE defeat. Whether he will succeed or not is anyone's guess.
A somewhat interesting question is whether Johnson would actually prefer Labour to win the GE precisely to try and sell this narrative that he is the Tories' only "saviour". Certainly, his MP resignation letter saw him lash out at the present Government in a remarkably bitter way (and his resignation speech as PM had similar undertones). That will be more easily tested in the GE campaign, so we'll see then how involved he decides to be then.
In any case, it's pretty clear that Johnson has no desire to be "merely" an MP. He didn't have to resign. He could have fought the by-election. That he chose to resign and not to fight is clearly suggestive.
A somewhat interesting question is whether Johnson would actually prefer Labour to win the GE precisely to try and sell this narrative that he is the Tories' only "saviour". Certainly, his MP resignation letter saw him lash out at the present Government in a remarkably bitter way (and his resignation speech as PM had similar undertones). That will be more easily tested in the GE campaign, so we'll see then how involved he decides to be then.
In any case, it's pretty clear that Johnson has no desire to be "merely" an MP. He didn't have to resign. He could have fought the by-election. That he chose to resign and not to fight is clearly suggestive.
//They are easily misinterpreted, and often taken out of context, but "wrong" is a stretch. //
'Wrong' is entirely right. I vividly recall all those bright young things - and the not so bright old things - trilling away to 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' - and look what happened. Something no one - absolutely no one - predicted or expected. Similarly, I recall the morning after the referendum when even you had to practically pick yourself up off the floor. No one expected that either. Quite frankly, I think the AB polls have often proved more accurate than those conducted 'officially'.
'Wrong' is entirely right. I vividly recall all those bright young things - and the not so bright old things - trilling away to 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' - and look what happened. Something no one - absolutely no one - predicted or expected. Similarly, I recall the morning after the referendum when even you had to practically pick yourself up off the floor. No one expected that either. Quite frankly, I think the AB polls have often proved more accurate than those conducted 'officially'.
Labour's defeat in 2019 was entirely expected in multiple polls, so I'm not sure what you are talking about there. As for 2016, polling was fairly consistently close, within margin of error, to the result. It's then a matter of taste whether a prediction of, say, 49-51 is closer to an actual of 52-48 than, say, 63-37 is. But:
1) "polling is [often] wrong" is an oversimplification;
2) we have moved pretty far from the starting point of this discussion now, which is that I was spinning, or even more bluntly "making things up". I certainly haven't made anything up: I've revealed my sources. That we disagree about their relevance and interpretation isn't enough to accuse me of spinning or making anything up.
1) "polling is [often] wrong" is an oversimplification;
2) we have moved pretty far from the starting point of this discussion now, which is that I was spinning, or even more bluntly "making things up". I certainly haven't made anything up: I've revealed my sources. That we disagree about their relevance and interpretation isn't enough to accuse me of spinning or making anything up.
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